Rural Household Energy Conservation: Mediating Roles and Synergistic Configurations of Livelihood Capital Under Climate Risk Perception in Xining, China

Rural household energy-saving behavior is central to low-carbon development in ecologically fragile plateau regions. This study explores whether climate risk perception promotes household energy-saving behavior, through which livelihood capital mechanisms this effect operates, and which livelihood capital configurations support high levels of such behavior. Drawing on survey data from 315 rural households in Xining, China, a sustainable livelihood framework is integrated with the pressure–state–response model, and PLS-SEM, an ANN, and fsQCA are applied. The integrated framework regards climate risk perception as external pressure, livelihood capital as the household livelihood state, and energy-saving behavior as the behavioral response. The sustainable livelihood framework identifies the multidimensional resource conditions of rural households, whereas the pressure–state–response model specifies the causal sequence through which perceived climate pressure affects livelihood states and induces behavioral responses. The results show that climate risk perception significantly promotes energy-saving behavior. Physical, human, and social capital exert positive effects, whereas natural and financial capital exert negative effects. Moreover, natural, financial, and social capital significantly mediate the link between climate risk perception and energy-saving behavior. Multi-group analysis shows that physical capital matters more for agriculture-dominated households than non-farm households. The ANN results identify social and human capital as the strongest predictors, and the fsQCA results show that high levels of energy-saving behavior arise not from any single condition but from multiple capital configurations, in which social capital is consistently central. Energy conservation under climate risk is therefore best understood as a multidimensional, nonlinear adaptation process embedded in household livelihood structures rather than a response to any single factor. These findings extend rural energy-saving research by linking climate pressure, livelihood conditions, and configurational decision logic in a plateau socio-ecological context. Policy interventions should combine energy-efficient infrastructure, targeted financial incentives, community-based diffusion, and livelihood-sensitive support for rural households.