Robust Performance Loss Rate Calculation for Photovoltaic Systems in High Latitude Locations

ABSTRACT

Photovoltaic (PV) production grows rapidly in the Nordics, but literature on calculating long‐term PV performance losses remains limited in these conditions, leading to inaccurate yield estimations and economic losses. To fill this knowledge gap, this contribution (1) shows typical PV performance characteristics, (2) obtains performance loss rates (PLRs) from multiple systems, and (3) assesses the best practices of PLR calculation under these conditions. For these objectives, we compared various methods for all steps of PLR calculation, including data filters, performance metrics, aggregation intervals, and statistical models for five systems (with 2.5–6 years of data) across Finland, from 60° to 67° N. Dark winters and snow coverage caused gaps and anomalies to the performance time series during wintertime, resulting in unrealistic PLRs. Excluding these anomalies with performance threshold filter improved the results. As the different methods can drastically affect the PLR value, an ensemble method consisting of an assessment of average PLR with over 700 calculation approaches was validated to be essential in identifying robust PLRs. Using this ensemble method, the system PLR estimates ranged from 0.41%/year to 2.65%/year. The data and codes are made publicly available, contributing to open access of PV datasets and allowing wider application of the PLR methodology.