RMB Exposure and Macroeconomic Performance Efficiency: Holder-Side Evidence on ERPT and GVC Channels

This study investigates whether holder-side RMB-related exposure is systematically associated with macroeconomic performance efficiency. Using a multi-objective efficiency framework rather than single macroeconomic indicators, we construct economy-year efficiency scores for 25 economies over 2005–2018 based on data envelopment analysis (DEA) and cross-efficiency evaluation. We then examine how these scores vary with RMB-related exchange-rate exposure and China-related value-added linkage proxies, while distinguishing RMB-specific exposure from broader trade integration and structural conditions. The results suggest conditional associations between holder-side RMB-related exposure and macroeconomic performance efficiency. The exchange-rate channel is positive and statistically significant under the baseline DEA specification (p < 0.01) when using PCSE. The estimated magnitude is economically modest and sensitive to alternative ICT proxies, efficiency benchmarks, and lag structures. By contrast, the GVC channel provides suggestive rather than confirmatory evidence, as China-related value-added linkages are not robustly significant under the revised fixed-effects specifications, augmented controls, or two-way fixed effects. The positive ERPT association is consistent in sign across the pooled CCR and genuine Game Cross-efficiency benchmarks. The VRS/BCC results are used as a complementary first-stage sensitivity check on the returns-to-scale assumption. The magnitude and statistical inference remain sensitive to alternative specifications and variance estimators. Overall, the findings should be interpreted as reduced-form, mechanism-consistent associations rather than causal effects of RMB internationalization.