Risk Scenarios for European Rearmament

ABSTRACT

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the European Union has launched a flurry of initiatives to ramp up European defence spending. Efforts to bolster European defence have further intensified in response to the United States' increasingly hostile stance towards its erstwhile European allies. However, countering new and emergent threats to Europe's security does not merely call for rapid (re)armament; it also requires careful and foresighted management of the potential destabilizing effects of armament for Europe itself and for wider international security structures. This article uses analytical path projection to identify prominent risk scenarios arising from European rearmament. Given these risks, the article advocates for robust and multi‐faceted investment in controlled European arms build‐up. Controlled rearmament means harnessing Cold War lessons to develop robust mechanisms for risk reduction and confidence building; looking beyond dyad‐specific rivalry with Russia to consider the wider and long‐term effects of a European arms build‐up for global security; and reinforcing pivotal global arms control and humanitarian disarmament regimes.