Risk Profiles in Polycrisis: A Vulnerability–Resource System in Emerging Adulthood

Emerging adulthood is a developmental period marked by identity exploration and the gradual attainment of adult roles. Under conditions of prolonged polycrisis, understanding how personality traits, psychological resources, and developmental factors jointly shape psychological functioning is critical. This longitudinal study examined psychological functioning across two waves (T1–T2; N = 875; 78% female; age 18–30). Measures included polycrisis-related distress (IADQ, IADQ-Polycrisis), maladaptive personality traits (PiCD), mental health (MHC-SF), resilience (KOP-26), quality of life (WHOQOL-BREF), and criteria of adulthood. Analyses were conducted using multiple linear regression and mixed-effects models. Results indicate a structured vulnerability–resource system underlying psychological functioning. Negative affectivity (PiCD) emerged as a central risk factor, predicting higher polycrisis-related distress (β = 0.23, p < .001) and lower mental health (β = −0.45, p < .001). Resilience (KOP-P, KOP-26) showed a modest protective effect (β = −0.11, p = .009). Additionally, higher fulfillment of criteria of adulthood at T1 predicted better mental health at T2 (β ≈ 0.39, p < .05). Effects of predictors were stable across time, with no meaningful interactions between predictors and wave. These findings suggest that psychological functioning in emerging adulthood under polycrisis is organized around a stable system of dispositional vulnerability and psychological and developmental resources.

Key messages

• A stable vulnerability–resource system—not situational change—organizes psychological functioning under polycrisis.

• Personality traits, resilience, and criteria of adulthood form a stable system of risk and protection shaping mental health in emerging adults.