Risk of Deforestation and Potential Water Erosion in the Cerrado Areas in the Brazilian Central–Western

This study aimed to identify areas at risk of deforestation in the Cerrado biome of the Brazilian Midwest (states of Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Goiás) and to estimate potential soil losses due to water erosion under land-use change scenarios. The methodology integrated the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE), spatializing rainfall erosivity (R), soil erodibility (K), topographic factor (LS), and cover-management factor (CP), with the ACEU (Accessibility, Cultivability, Extractability and Unprotected/protection status) model to assess deforestation risk based on accessibility, agricultural suitability, extractive activities, and legal protection status. Results indicated an average soil loss of 0.11 t ha−1 year−1 under natural vegetation cover, with 90% of the area presenting losses below 0.25 t ha−1 year−1. However, 27.5% of the remaining natural cover is located in areas classified as high or very high deforestation risk, indicating significant environmental vulnerability. Simulated scenarios of land-use conversion to pasture and annual crops revealed substantial increases in soil loss, particularly under annual cropping systems, potentially exceeding soil loss tolerance thresholds across millions of hectares. The findings demonstrate that integrating deforestation risk assessment with erosion modeling is a strategic tool for environmental planning, reinforcing the importance of preserving native vegetation to maintain ecosystem services and ensure long-term environmental sustainability.