Risk Assessment of River-Channel Washout Disasters for Long-Distance Oil and Gas Pipelines Considering Storm-Induced Flood Scour Effects
Yujian Yang, Juncheng Zhao, Yujie Xue, Luning Xue, Mingliang Tian, Wenjiang Wang, Yang Liu, Junjie Cao, Jinhua Pang, Junzhuo Xue, Qinglu Deng, Xingwei RenRiver-channel washout is one of the common geological hazards threatening the safety of long-distance oil and gas pipelines, particularly under storm-flood conditions, when pipeline sections crossing rivers and gullies are more susceptible to damage. Existing assessment methods for river-channel washout are effective for single river cross-sections or post-disaster field investigations; however, their application remains limited when dealing with long-distance pipeline systems characterized by numerous river- and gully-crossing sections and large spatial variability in upstream catchment conditions. To address this issue, this study investigates storm-flood discharge and scour-depth calculation methods suitable for river- and gully-crossing sections of long-distance oil and gas pipelines, and establishes a quantitative evaluation index system that considers river-channel washout susceptibility, pipeline vulnerability, and pipeline failure consequences. Based on investigation results of river-channel washout hazards along multiple pipeline systems, including the Zhongxian–Yichang section of the Zhongwu Pipeline, the Hubei–Hunan section of the Lanzhou–Zhengzhou–Changsha Pipeline, and the Phase I Jiangxi Natural Gas Pipeline Network, the hazard characteristics and influencing factors of river-channel washout affecting long-distance oil and gas pipelines are analyzed and summarized. The proposed method was applied to 19 river- and gully-crossing pipeline sections in the Phase I Jiangxi Natural Gas Pipeline Network under different rainfall intensities. The results show that, under light-to-moderate rainfall conditions, 15 sites were classified as relatively low risk and 4 sites as medium risk. Under both the 50-year and 100-year return-period rainstorm scenarios, 12 sites were classified as relatively low risk, 6 sites as medium risk, and 1 site as relatively high risk. The results also indicate that the risk probability of some sites increases with increasing rainfall intensity. Among them, Site No. 19 shows the highest risk probability, increasing from 0.0997 under light-to-moderate rainfall conditions to 0.1474 and 0.1488 under the 50-year and 100-year return-period rainstorm scenarios, respectively. The proposed method can provide a reference for meteorological risk assessment of river-channel washout hazards along long-distance oil and gas pipelines.