Risk Assessment of Foodborne Pathogens in Ready-to-Eat Poached Chicken in Shanghai, China

Shanghai-style poached chicken is a traditional ready-to-eat (RTE) dish in Shanghai. The locally monitored data revealed that the contamination rates of three major pathogens, including Staphylococcus aureus, Listeria monocytogenes, and Salmonella, were 8.33%, with Salmonella being the most frequently detected (4.76%), followed by S. aureus (2.38%) and L. monocytogenes (1.19%). A semi-quantitative risk assessment identified Salmonella as the key pathogen, with a high-risk score of 52. An established growth model for Salmonella isolates on poached chicken was utilized within a Monte Carlo simulation framework, combined with consumption data, to estimate ingestion levels per day across three typical consumption scenarios. Compared with dine-in consumption (Scenario 1), ambient storage (Scenario 2) and refrigeration (Scenario 3) increased the probability of infection by approximately 4-fold and 2-fold, respectively. Sensitivity analysis revealed the initial contamination level as the primary risk determinant, highlighting the importance of strict environmental hygiene in processing. Overall, this study provides a quantitative risk assessment of poached chicken in Shanghai and offers scientific evidence for targeted interventions along the food chain.