Rising Diabetes Burden in Türkiye: Machine Learning Based Projections to 2040

Background

Diabetes mellitus poses one of the highest and fastest-growing public health burdens in Türkiye within Europe, yet long-term projections incorporating contemporary forecasting methods remain limited. This study aimed to project the burden of diabetes mellitus in Türkiye from 2024 to 2040 using a weighted ensemble forecasting approach.

Methods

Historical data on diabetes mellitus deaths, incidence, and prevalence (1990-2023) were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023. Population projections were sourced from United Nations World Population Prospects 2024. Nine forecasting models were applied: linear regression, polynomial regression (degrees 2 and 3), exponential smoothing, ARIMA, random forest, gradient boosting, XGBoost, and support vector regression. Models were validated using 5-fold time series cross-validation. A weighted ensemble was constructed using inverse root mean squared error weighting.

Results

Between 2023 and 2040, diabetes deaths are projected to increase from 25,930 to 39,676 (+53.0%), incident cases from 370,357 to 564,927 (+52.5%), and prevalent cases from 8.75 million to 17.67 million (+101.8%). Age-standardised prevalence rate is projected to increase by 58.9%, from 8,599 to 13,667 per 100,000, indicating a rising burden independent of demographic ageing. The age-standardised death rate shows a modest increase (+8.3%), suggesting improvements in diabetes management despite growing case numbers.

Conclusions

Türkiye faces a substantial escalation in diabetes burden over the coming decades, with prevalent cases expected to double by 2040. These projections underscore the urgent need for strengthened primary prevention strategies, enhanced screening programs, and health system capacity planning to address this growing epidemic.

Key messages

• Diabetes burden in Türkiye is projected to rise sharply by 2040, with prevalence expected to double, highlighting an urgent need for prevention and early detection.

• Despite modest mortality improvements, rapidly increasing diabetes cases will require expanded screening, primary care capacity, and long-term health system planning.