Revisiting distance decay: The evolving relationship between distance, airfare, and tourism demand in East Africa

This paper examines distance decay in international tourism demand for East African destinations using bilateral panel data from 86 origin countries to 14 destinations over a 15-year period. Adopting a gravity model framework, the study extends conventional specifications by jointly incorporating geographical distance and airfare to distinguish between physical and economic dimensions of accessibility. The results confirm that distance negatively affects tourist arrivals, while cultural proximity variables significantly shape tourism flows. However, airfare partially mediate the impact of distance, indicating that travel cost does not fully substitute for spatial separation. Moreover, the relationship between distance and tourism demand is nonlinear, revealing multiple peaks in distance decay curves rather than the traditional single-peak pattern. These dynamics evolve over time, reflecting market diversification and improved connectivity across the region. By focusing on an underexplored African context, the study contributes new empirical insights into the complex spatial structure of tourism flows.