Rethinking Water Scarcity Indicators to Improve SDG 6.4.2 Monitoring in Algeria

Abstract

While water scarcity is widely perceived as a reality, its measurement remains a complex and debated issue, particularly in arid regions where data gaps and methodological inconsistencies persist. This study provides a structured assessment of water scarcity in Algeria by integrating national data sets, revisiting key scarcity indicators, and explicitly accounting for different groundwater assumptions in southern regions. The results indicate that Algeria has entered a phase of absolute water scarcity, with water availability estimated at 348    m 3 / capita / year in 2024 and projected to decline to 312    m 3 / capita / year by 2030. The use-to-resource ratio reached 92.9% in 2021, while the social water scarcity index exceeded 28, confirming a critical level of water stress. The analysis also highlights the limitations of conventional indicators in capturing the complexity of water availability in arid contexts. It further suggests that supply-side policies, while reducing economic water scarcity, may introduce new dependencies related to energy and infrastructure. The regionalized and spatialized monitoring of water stress shows the benefits of moving toward river basin–scale assessments to avoid territorial heterogeneity. The main contribution of this paper lies in proposing a clearer interpretation framework that distinguishes between renewable and augmented water resources and supports more robust monitoring of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 6.4.2.