Resilient Trade in Low‐Carbon Technologies Under Geopolitical Risk

ABSTRACT

This paper examines how geopolitical risk shapes international trade in low‐carbon technologies (LCTs). Using exporter–product panel data, we find that higher exporter‐level geopolitical risk is associated with lower export values for non‐LCT products, while low‐carbon technology exports respond less negatively and gain export share relative to non‐LCT products. The relative resilience of LCT exports varies across exporter income groups, LCT sectors, and end‐use categories. Two channels appear relevant: LCT resilience is stronger in products with more concentrated global supplier structures and when global energy prices are higher.