DOI: 10.1111/wej.70088 ISSN: 1747-6585
Resilience of
Phragmites australis
Communities Under Climate Change: Simulating the Coupled Effects of Salinity Intrusion and Moisture Conditions in
Zhiqiang Yan, Sike Wang, Luming Wu, Jingwen Huang, Fenghui Lu, Daguang Li, Lingling Zeng, Chengyuan Li ABSTRACT
Under global climate change, coastal wetlands face severe dual stress of salinization and drought, whose coupling drives wetland degradation. As a key species,
Phragmites australis
maintains wetland function, but its community resilience mechanism to salinity‐moisture coupling remains unclear. We developed a dynamic growth model for
P. australis
under these stresses, calibrated and validated via indoor controlled experiments and field surveys. Three scenarios (drought + high salinity, moist + low salinity, flooded + moderate salinity) quantified non‐linear impacts on biomass. The model showed high accuracy (
R
= 0.97, RSR = 0.2452, IOA ≥ 0.97). Scenario simulations revealed: moist + low salinity yielded the highest biomass peak (~2000 g/m
2
) with gentle decline; flooded + moderate salinity had a slightly lower peak (~1900 g/m
2
) and faster decline; drought + high salinity showed the lowest peak (~1800 g/m
2
) and most rapid post‐September decline. This study overcomes static model limitations, providing a scientific tool for adaptive restoration of wetland
P. australis
communities.