Resilience in Transition: Determinants of Wellbeing Among Forcibly Displaced Populations in Armenia

Background

Limited evidence exists on how resilience changes over time among forcibly displaced populations and what factors shape it. As part of the Community Wellbeing Project, aimed at enhancing the health, well-being, and resilience of forcibly displaced individuals from Nagorno-Karabakh, this study examines resilience differences across displacement phases and associated socio-demographic and psychosocial factors.

Methods

We analyzed cross-sectional survey data from the displaced community in Masis (N = 746), implemented in two data collection phases (phase 1 vs 2) separated by a four-month interval in 2025. Resilience was measured using the CD-RISC-10 scale (ranging from 0 to 40). Differences between displacement phases were assessed using t-tests. Multivariable linear regression and generalized estimating equations (GEE) were used to identify factors associated with resilience, accounting for clustering at the household level.

Results

Mean resilience score was significantly higher in group 1 compared to group 2 (21.3 vs. 14.9; p < 0.001), and this difference remained significant after adjustment, with group 2 associated with lower resilience scores (β=-4.91; CI: -6.23, -3.59). Higher resilience was positively associated with better self-reported health (β = 1.72; CI: 0.32, 3.13), as well as greater emotional (β = 0.09; CI: 0.05, 0.13) and tangible social support (β = 0.05; CI: 0.01, 0.09). Individuals living in rural areas (β = 2.76; CI: 1.45, 4.07) and those with higher education (β = 2.71; CI: 1.30, 4.12) also demonstrated higher resilience levels. In contrast, being female (β=-3.00; CI: -4.30, -1.70) and experiencing higher levels of stress (β=-0.31, CI: -.54, -0.07) were associated with lower resilience.

Conclusions

Findings suggest potential changes in resilience over time, shaped by social support, health, and socioeconomic factors. Strengthening support systems and addressing stress could play a key role in improving outcomes among displaced populations.

Key messages

• Resilience among displaced populations may shift over time, highlighting the importance of sustained support beyond the initial phase of displacement.

• Social support, health, and education are key factors linked to resilience, suggesting entry points for targeted public health interventions.