Researchers, Affiliations, and Biases in the Military Expenditures–Growth Nexus Literature

Abstract

The impact of military expenditure on economic growth has been studied for decades, yet there is still no consensus on the subject. This paper analyses 177 empirical studies published by 301 authors between 2000 and 2026 to assess the reported effects of military expenditure on economic growth. Then, it tests hypotheses concerning potential systemic biases in published results related to researchers’ characteristics, countries of origin, and institutional affiliations. The estimation results provide only weak evidence for the existence of any such biases in the literature. Negative effects of military expenditure on economic growth are reported more frequently by researchers from English-speaking countries, whereas positive effects are more commonly reported by researchers from more democratic countries. Single-country studies, particularly those examining the authors’ own countries, are significantly more likely than cross-country studies to report a positive impact of military expenditure on growth.