Research on the Radiation Mechanism of Core Industrial Parks in the Northern Slope Economic Belt of the Tianshan Mountains from the Perspective of Network Structure

Coordinated regional development is a complex systems engineering endeavor. Different industrial parks, serving as key nodes, form production agglomeration networks through industrial chain synergies and technology spillovers, gradually generating radiation and driving effects on economic development within these complex networks. This study takes the Northern Slope Economic Belt of the Tianshan Mountains as a representative case, integrating complex network theory and breakpoint theory, and employs the Temporal Exponential Random Graph Model (TERGM) alongside fixed-effects regression to investigate the structural evolution and radiation mechanisms of the industrial park production agglomeration network in the study area from 2012 to 2022. Moving beyond the conventional unidimensional logic that “geographical distance determines radiation scope,” this research reframes the understanding of radiation mechanisms from “spatial physical attributes” to “network structural attributes.” It systematically delineates the quantitative relationships between cluster network structures and radiation mechanisms, addressing the limitations of prior studies that focus predominantly on geographical distance. This provides theoretical support at the network-structure level for optimizing cluster radiation pathways and offers novel conceptual insights for advancing high-quality development in industrial parks and regions within less developed areas. The findings indicate that the production agglomeration network of industrial parks in the Northern Slope Economic Belt of the Tianshan Mountains has taken initial shape and is undergoing a positive evolutionary trajectory, with the Urumqi Economic and Technological Development Zone and the Urumqi High-tech Industrial Development Zone serving as the core nodes of the network. Regarding radiation mechanisms, the Urumqi Economic and Technological Development Zone exhibits a pattern of “broad radiation scope but low radiation intensity.” Radiation scope is positively influenced by general public budget revenue, the proportion of tertiary industry output, the proportion of gross industrial output, built-up area, and the degree centrality of core industrial parks, while being negatively influenced by water resource consumption intensity and energy consumption intensity. Radiation field strength is positively influenced by the node centrality of core parks, general public budget revenue, fixed asset investment, built-up area, the proportion of tertiary industry output, the proportion of gross industrial output, and water resource consumption intensity and negatively influenced by both energy consumption intensity and water resource consumption intensity.