Research on the Peak of Terminal Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions of Civil Buildings in Anhui Province

Buildings account for nearly 30% of global energy-related carbon emissions. In rapidly developing economies, the operational phase of buildings represents a major and growing source of emissions. However, emission pathways in hot-summer-cold-winter (HSCW) regions remain understudied. This study analyzes carbon emission peaks and influencing factors in the operational phase of existing civilian buildings in Anhui Province. It integrates energy balance tables, the LEAP model, carbon emission factors, and the STIRPAT model. The energy balance table method disaggregates building energy consumption into urban, rural residential and public sectors. It adjusts for transportation energy by deducting specific proportions of gasoline and diesel from industrial, commercial, and residential sectors. Heating energy calculations are simplified because the region has a HSCW climate with limited centralized heating. The LEAP model projects emissions under four scenarios from 2020 to 2060. The STIRPAT model with ridge regression reveals that the permanent population and energy structure negatively influence residential emissions with elasticities of −2.646 and −1.465, respectively. This finding is consistent with the province’s energy transition, where coal use dropped from 28.48% in 2005 to 0.45% in 2020 and electricity use rose from 39.86% to 59.01%. In contrast, per capita GDP, building area, and energy intensity show positive effects. For public buildings, tertiary industry added value and energy structure are key determinants. Scenario analysis identifies the blueprint scenario as optimal, with residential emissions peaking at 34.29 million tons in 2025 and declining to 9.19 million tons by 2060 through measures such as 10% building retrofits by 2025, 75% energy-saving standards for new constructions, 50% retrofits by 2060, and renewable energy integration with building electrification, outperforming the baseline scenario that peaks in 2036 at 49.46 million tons and other intermediate scenarios. The study underscores that energy structure optimization significantly decouples energy consumption from emissions, offering actionable pathways for dual carbon goals through policy synergies in building efficiency, population management, and clean energy adoption to foster sustainable development and the construction industry’s low-carbon transition.