Research on the Impact of China’s Forestry Green Total Factor Productivity on Forest Ecological Security

China’s forest ecological security (FES) system is currently undergoing a transformative phase characterized by the synergy between quantitative expansion and qualitative improvement. Against the backdrop of advancing ecological civilization, China has particular difficulties juggling economic expansion with ecological preservation. Improving forestry green total factor productivity (FGTFP) is regarded as a crucial pathway to achieving the dual objectives of “sustaining forestry growth without deforestation and ensuring ecological security without compromising output.” This study employs panel data from 30 Chinese provinces spanning 2004 to 2018. The entropy weight method and super-efficiency SBM-GML index model are utilized to quantitatively measure FES and FGTFP, respectively. This empirically examines the underlying mechanisms and threshold effects governing their relationship. The results indicate that FGTFP significantly improves FES, with urbanization exerting a positive moderating effect. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that FES dividends derived from FGTFP are more pronounced in southern collective forest regions and economically developed areas. Further threshold testing uncovers distinct patterns: once economic agglomeration surpasses specific thresholds, FGTFP triggers a stepwise surge in its positive effect on FES. While crossing its respective threshold, the tertiary industry share exhibits an inverted U-shaped trajectory. This research elucidates the stage-specific patterns of China’s green forestry transition, offering differentiated policy insights for fostering high-quality forestry development and strengthening the national ecological security barrier.