Research on the Impact Mechanism of Digital-Intelligent Transformation on Green Transformation of Manufacturing: Empirical Evidence from China

As China transitions to a higher development stage, the environmental dividends of smart-digital upgrades are growing more prominent. Boosting green total factor productivity (GTFP) in manufacturing is critical for fostering emerging quality-driven productive forces. Employing provincial data from 30 regions (2013–2023), this research utilizes the super-efficiency SBM, fixed-effects, mediation, and moderation models to investigate both the impact and operative pathways of digital-intelligent transformation on manufacturing GTFP. The empirical evidence suggests that: (1) The positive effect of digital-intelligent transformation on manufacturing greening proves robust across endogeneity corrections and various sensitivity tests. (2) Heterogeneity tests indicate that the promotional effect is more pronounced in eastern provinces and areas with weaker pollution loads. (3) Mechanism analysis identifies a dual-edged pathway: while technological innovation serves as a positive conduit, labor structure optimization unexpectedly acts as a suppression channel, weakening the overall positive impact. (4) Moderating effect analysis demonstrates that factor market development strengthens the positive relationship between digital-intelligent transformation and manufacturing GTFP. (5) Threshold analysis based on environmental regulation intensity indicates that the marginal effect of digital-intelligent transformation gradually declines as environmental regulation becomes more stringent. Overall, the findings suggest that the green effects of digital-intelligent transformation are not automatic but depend on regional industrial structures, factor market conditions, and environmental regulatory intensity. Crucially, this study reveals a potential “green paradox” in China’s manufacturing digitalization process: although digital-intelligent technologies stimulate innovation and labor upgrading, their contribution to emission reduction is partially offset by a misalignment in labor allocation and technological orientation, resulting in a net weakening of the green transformation effect. Therefore, policymakers should promote the coordinated development of digital infrastructure, factor market reform, and environmental regulation, while actively guiding skilled labor toward green innovation activities to accelerate manufacturing green transformation and foster new quality productive forces.