Research on Choice Preference of Parallel Trains for High-Speed Rail Heterogeneous Passengers

The passenger capacity utilization of parallel trains on China’s high-speed railway (HSR) varies greatly, which seriously affects the revenue and passenger service quality of railroad companies. One of the key factors contributing to this issue is the uniformity of fares. To address this, China’s railway enterprises are implementing differential pricing reforms for parallel trains. This paper presents a two-step method that combines latent class analysis (LCA) and random parameter logit (RPL) models to estimate the preferences of diverse passengers for parallel trains and quantify them using willingness to pay. To illustrate this, we conducted revealed preference and stated preference questionnaire surveys at Nanning East Railway Station, China, focusing on the Nanning-Guangzhou HSR route. These surveys gathered data on passengers’ personal and travel attributes. LCA was carried out according to passenger attributes, and passengers were divided into three categories according to the goodness-of-fit measures. Through the questionnaire data, the travel time and departure time period of each category of the passenger were converted into costs, and the absolute value of each influencing factor of passengers for parallel trains was obtained. Considering the limited rational choice behavior of passengers, the perceived value of each influencing factor of passengers on parallel trains was calculated through prospect theory. Finally, an RPL model for parallel train choice of heterogeneous passengers was constructed, and the parameters of each category of the passenger were estimated based on the absolute value and perceived value of the influencing factors.