Repurposing Illegal Coca Cultivation in Colombia to Unlock Large Climate Benefits and Support Legal Livelihoods

Abstract

Illegal coca cultivation in Colombia sustains one of the largest global illicit economies and drives substantial carbon emissions and biodiversity loss. Repurposing these plantations offers opportunities to align climate mitigation, rural development, and anti‐drug policies. Yet, the climate impacts of the cocaine value chain and the mitigation potential of alternative land uses remain poorly quantified. This study combines spatially explicit land cover data sets and emission data to estimate life‐cycle greenhouse gas emissions of coca cultivation, processing, and distribution and the mitigation potential of repurposing coca‐occupied land. Colombia's 2022 cocaine production generated 3.1 MtCO ₂ ‐eq., with about 50% of emissions arising from land use change. Restoring the 0.2% of Colombian land under coca through natural forest regrowth or options such as agroforestry or bioenergy crops could mitigate 2.5–3.6 MtCO ₂ ‐eq.yr ⁻¹ (equivalent to national aviation and shipping emissions). Unlocking this potential requires overcoming socio‐economic barriers, ideally through targeted international investments supported by counternarcotics budgets to secure legal livelihoods while advancing environmental and anti‐trafficking goals.