Renewable Energy and Growth Adjustment During Global Energy-Price Increases: A Panel Study of Net Energy-Importing Countries

This study examines conditional associations between initial energy profiles and growth adjustment during global energy-price increases. A balanced panel of 61 baseline net energy-importing countries over 2003–2024 is analysed using two-way fixed effects. The gross domestic product (GDP) growth gap is annual real GDP growth minus its preceding three-year average. Net energy-import exposure and the renewable share of total final energy consumption are fixed at their 2000–2001 averages. Higher renewable shares are associated with more favourable growth-gap adjustment at high import exposure; this contrast remains significant under wild-bootstrap inference, alternative growth benchmarks, and single-year baselines. However, the benchmark triple interaction is insignificant under wild-bootstrap inference, weakening evidence that the renewable association systematically strengthens with import exposure. Findings differ across growth-gap, growth-loss, and annual-growth outcomes. Signed-price specifications and income-group comparisons provide no robust evidence of asymmetry or between-group differences. The results concern the economic dimension of energy security across initial energy profiles. They do not identify causal protection from renewable expansion or establish its environmental benefits.