Remote Sensing-Based Multi-Indicator Assessment of Dryland Land Degradation Under Vegetation, Productivity, and Soil Constraints in Punjab, Pakistan from 2001 to 2024

Land degradation threatens ecosystem productivity and food security across dryland regions worldwide. Currently, land degradation affects 3.2 billion people and approximately 25% of the world’s terrestrial land. This study assessed the spatiotemporal dynamics and potential drivers of land degradation in Punjab, Pakistan, from 2001 to 2024 using an integrated remote sensing framework combining Land Use/Land Cover (LULC), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Net Primary Productivity (NPP), and Soil Organic Carbon (SOC). A weighted overlay approach and Moisture-Adjusted Net Primary Productivity (MNPP) analysis were employed to evaluate degradation severity and vegetation productivity under moisture stress conditions. Land-cover transitions were analyzed using the Land Change Modeler (LCM), while sensitivity analysis was conducted to evaluate the robustness of the weighting scheme under alternative scenarios. Results indicate higher degradation severity in southern Punjab, where SOC levels are lower. Land cover analysis revealed notable changes, with grassland decreasing by 1.77%, while built-up areas increased from 1.89% in 2001 to 3.04% in 2024. Tree cover and sparse vegetation also exhibited declining trends over the study period. In addition, MNPP was used as an indicator of vegetation productivity under moisture constraints. The MNPP results indicate an overall decline in productivity, particularly in southern and central Punjab, despite localized improvements in some regions. These trends align with a net loss of 1790 km2 of non-degraded land from 2001 to 2024 and a 163% increase in very high degradation. Northern districts maintained relatively higher productivity levels compared with other areas. Both the weighted overlay and MNPP approaches indicate that land degradation is associated with declining soil organic carbon and increasing moisture stress. The results highlight the importance of continuous monitoring to support policy interventions aimed at mitigating desertification and ensuring long-term food security.