Regional Spillovers of Climate Vulnerability, Governance Quality and Sustainable Development in Africa: Evidence From Spatial Panel Analysis

ABSTRACT

Climate change is projected to undermine the progress that Africa can make towards achieving the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (climate action—SDG 13). Although Africa accounts for less than 4% of the world's GHG emissions, the continent faces severe climate change impacts, including drought, floods, and desertification. In light of this scenario, this paper evaluates the effects of climate vulnerability, readiness, and governance on sustainable development across 43 African nations during 2000–2022 using the spatial Durbin model. Results show that climate vulnerability has a significant negative effect on development, with a direct effect of −0.352. More importantly, there are substantial spillover effects from nearby countries that surpass the direct effect (indirect effect: −1.243, representing 78% of the total effect). On the contrary, governance positively influences development, with a direct effect of β  = 0.0007 and no spillover effect across nations. Lastly, although climate readiness did not have a significant direct impact on development, it had considerable spillover effects (indirect effect: −0.204). Overall, the findings highlight the transnational nature of developmental issues within Africa. These findings suggest the need for regional cooperation to address the risks posed by climate change. Climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts require regional responses in addition to national‐level strategies.