Regional Disparities in Poverty in Kazakhstan: An Empirical Analysis Across 20 Administrative Regions, 2010–2023

This study examines income inequality and poverty dynamics across Kazakhstan’s 20 administrative regions over 2010–2023, contributing empirical evidence relevant to SDG 1 (no poverty) and SDG 10 (reduced inequalities). Using official microdata from the Bureau of National Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan, we analyse the poverty headcount ratio across 239 region–year observations, the income share of the poorest 40 percent for 2017–2023, the Gini coefficient as a 2025 cross-section, and household purchasing-power ratios. Methods include descriptive statistics, OLS trend analysis, sigma-convergence testing, Foster–Greer–Thorbecke poverty measurement, and bivariate Pearson correlation analysis. The national poverty rate declined from 6.5% in 2010 to 2.5% in 2016, rose to 5.3% in 2020 due to the COVID-19 shock, and stabilised at 5.2% in 2021–2023. Regional disparities are pronounced: in 2023 the poverty rate ranged from 2.4% in Astana to 9.0% in the Turkestan region. A significant negative correlation between mean poverty and the Gini coefficient (r = −0.478, p < 0.05) reveals a uniform poverty paradox: agrarian regions combine high poverty with low inequality, while industrialised regions show low poverty but high income concentration. Some 84.5% of Kazakhstan’s poor live in households of five or more persons. These findings support differentiated regional policy aligned with SDG targets.