Regional conflict and multipolarity: A theoretical analysis

There are many scholars (Posen, 2009, Dugin, 2021, Ashford and Cooper, 2023, De Santis, 2024, among others) who view that post-cold war unipolarity is on decline and the world order is moving towards multipolarity. There are many emerging regional powers such as China, EU, Russia, India, Brazil and South Africa, which attest the emerging multipolarity. The emerging multipolarity has serious consequences for both the nature as well as the increasing number of regional conflicts. This research paper is based on assumption that the increasing trend of multipolarity will lead to greater number of regional conflicts and issue-based alliances among emerging regional powers. This is not to suggest that regional conflicts were absent during the post WWII war bipolarity or post-cold war unipolarity, rather their nature and resolution were addressed within the framework of bipolarity or unipolarity. But multipolarity will change this framework. In view of this assumption, this paper will raise and address theoretically the following two questions. First, how multipolarity impacts the emergence of regional conflicts? Second, what is the nature and possibility of resolution of contemporary regional conflicts? In the first question, the paper will address the ongoing debate on the impacts of multipolarity among scholars with views from neorealists and liberal theorists of interdependence. For second question, the paper will investigate the idea of Regional Security Complex (Barry Buzan) and the role of regional powers with respect to European security structure. The paper will use secondary data and views of relevant theorists suitable to contemporary regional conflicts.