Regional Assessment of Groundwater Flow of Natural and Predicted Resources of Fresh and Low-Mineralized Waters in Southern and Western Kazakhstan

Groundwater flow is an integral part of the Earth’s water cycle and plays a key role in assessing groundwater resource potential, characterizing the upper limit of possible groundwater withdrawal over a long period without depletion. The objective of this study is a comprehensive regional assessment of groundwater flow and the natural and predicted resources of fresh and low-mineralized groundwater in Southern and Western Kazakhstan. This assessment is based on an analysis of hydrogeological conditions and water balance, taking into account climate variability and anthropogenic load, to justify sustainable water resources management in arid territories. This article provides a regional assessment and mapping of groundwater flow, taking into account climate and anthropogenic changes in Kazakhstan, to refine the predicted resources of fresh and low-mineralized groundwater. The basin balance calculation results indicate that in arid and semi-arid regions, the decline in groundwater recharge by the 2050s will generally not exceed 10%. The average layer of groundwater flow of renewable groundwater resources in the Kazakhstan part of the Zhaiyk-Caspian water management basin (WMB) is estimated at 33.4 mm/year, and the average modulus of groundwater flow is 1.06 L/s per 1 km2. The average layer of groundwater flow of renewable groundwater resources in the Kazakhstan part of the Aral-Surdarya water management basin (WMB) is estimated at 14.8 mm/year, and the average modulus of groundwater flow is 0.47 L/s per 1 km2. The average layer of groundwater flow of renewable groundwater resources in the Kazakhstan part of the Shu-Talas water management basin (WMB) is estimated at 26.5 mm/year, and the average modulus of groundwater flow is 0.84 L/s per 1 km2. For mountainous and folded regions, the average layer of groundwater flow of renewable groundwater resources in the Balkhash-Alakol water management basin (WMB) system is estimated at 70.7 mm/year, and the average modulus of groundwater flow is 2.24 L/s per 1 km2. For intermontane and foothill basins, the average layer of groundwater flow of renewable groundwater resources in the Balkhash-Alakol water management basin (WMB) is estimated at 54.3 mm/year, and the average modulus of groundwater flow is 1.72 L/s per km2.