DOI: 10.35378/gujs.501669 ISSN: 2147-1762

Reducing the Impact of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis Disease by Domestic Animals and Tilapia Fish: A System Dynamics Model

Saadettin Erhan Kesen, Seyma Kurt
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The purpose of this paper is to seek ways inreducing incidence of vector borne disease called leishmaniasis on humans.Frequently encountered in East Mediterranean and Southeastern Anatolian regionof Turkey due to risk factors including poverty, malnutrition, lack ofsanitation and defrostration, leishmaniasis disease is transmitted bysandflies’ (vector) bites to humans. In addition to the zooprophylaxis effectin which domestic animals acting as dead-end hosts are used to alleviate theincidence on humans, we also incorporate the Tilapia fish population into themodel to observe its effect in terms of relieving the vector bites on humans.We elaborate dynamic behavior and feedback loop structure of the system understudy with three blood meal hosts: rodents, humans, and domestic animals.Proposed model is simulated throughout a period of 1000 days. We conductsensitivity analysis by changing the rates of vector biting and the number oflarvae eaten by Tilapia fish which influence the transmission of the disease.Results indicate that basic reproductive number and its prevalence in humans decreases as thesize of domestic animal and the sandflies larvae eaten by Tilapia fishincreases.

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