Recidivism of individuals under probation in Poland and the predictive validity of classification into risk groups

The procedure of recidivism risk assessment for offenders under probation supervision in Poland has been in operation in Poland since 2015. Pursuant to § 1 of Article 169b of the Executive Penal Code, perpetrators of crimes under probation are classified into one of three risk groups: A (low risk); B (basic group); and C (high risk). The study aimed to determine the effectiveness of probation supervision and the effectiveness of risk assessment regulated by Article 169b. In the total sample ( N = 795), 23.9% of supervised probation participants committed an offense during probation, while 76.1% of the men did not commit an offense during that period. The AUC value for predicting crime during the probation period (i.e., general recidivism) did not even exceed .60 (.59). In summary, the results of our research on recidivism forecasting based on the model used in the Polish criminal justice system, cast doubt on the viability of this solution.