Recent Trends and Regime Shifts in Arctic Coastal Temperatures: Evidence of AMOC Slowing?

This study analyzes surface air temperature (SAT) trends at 158 stations located on or above the Arctic Circle over the 2000–2024 period, aiming to assess whether recent temperature shifts could serve as indirect indicators of a slowing Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Regression analysis reveals that only 40% of stations show statistically significant warming trends (p < 0.05), while 33% exhibit no significant trend. Applying the Pettitt and Buishand tests, we detect abrupt regime shifts at 38 stations, with breakpoints concentrated between 2009 and 2014. Notably, 36 of these stations display a weakening of the warming trend after the breakpoint: at 13 stations (including key Arctic archipelagos and the White Sea coast), an initial increase shifts to a decrease; at 17 stations, warming continues but at a slower rate; and at 6 stations (near the Bering Strait), a decrease intensifies. These spatial patterns suggest a potential fingerprint of AMOC slowdown, consistent with recent modeling studies that predict cooling in northwestern Europe and possible Little Ice Age-type environmental conditions. Our findings have implications for assessing future Arctic navigation, coastal infrastructure, and resource extraction under changing climate regimes.