DOI: 10.53443/anadoluibfd.1904560 ISSN: 2687-184X

REASSESSING KEY SECTORS AND IMPORT DEPENDENCY IN TÜRKİYE: EVIDENCE FROM THE 2023 INPUT–OUTPUT TABLE

Muhammet Rıdvan İnce, Nazmiye Avcı, Bahadır Han Elseven, Ayhan Orhan
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The main objective of this study is to provide an up-to-date sectoral analysis of the Turkish economy using supply and use tables for 2023. In this context, the inter-sectoral linkage structure and import dependency are considered together. For a country like Türkiye, which has a current account deficit problem, identifying sectors that both increase production and have a low potential for generating external deficits is the primary motivation of this study. To conduct these analyses, a sector-based input-output table for 2023 was obtained using the supply and use tables published by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK). First, forward and backward linkage effects were calculated through the Leontief inverse matrix. Based on these calculations, the key sectors for 2023 were identified using the Hirschman approach. In the second stage, the relative import dependencies of the sectors were measured by combining the Leontief inverse matrix with import technical coefficients. According to the results, trade, logistics support activities, real estate, and some service sectors are key sectors in terms of the impact of production increase, while exhibiting relatively lower import dependency than other sectors. However, the high linkage coefficients of the relevant sectors do not directly indicate that they will be the dominant factor in long-term development policies. While the study emphasizes the analytical importance of considering connectivity strength and import dependence together for sectoral prioritization, it also reveals that policy decisions should be supported by multidimensional indicators such as the technological content, value-added production, and export performance of the relevant sectors. In this respect, the study offers a contemporary contribution to the literature by expanding the traditional linkage analysis from an external balance perspective.

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