Reading the Sediment: Microbiome-Guided Diagnosis and Inoculation-Assisted Recovery in Mangrove Restoration

Abstract

Global mangrove restoration succeeds unevenly, and much of that unevenness traces to two gaps: an inability to diagnose degradation before it appears in the canopy, and an assumption that hydrological correction alone triggers recovery. We examine both against a current restoration programme, the UK DEFRA/Inter-American Development Bank-funded Blue Carbon Restoration Programme in South Clarendon, Jamaica. Its 2023 baseline found water, soil, and sediment chemistry inconclusive for predicting dieback across four large mangrove die-back areas. The 2025 restoration programme, though correctly sequenced to restore hydrology to support mangrove regeneration, includes no microbial monitoring or intervention. Drawing on mangrove microbiome literature and a terrestrial precedent for soil-inoculum-steered restoration, we propose that sediment microbiome profiling can supply the diagnostic signal soil and water chemistry do not, and that donor inoculation from a reference mangrove, applied once hydrology is restored, is a plausible, low-risk accelerant worth implementing at this site. Sustainability Statement: This work is chiefly associated with UN Sustainable Development Goal 14 (Life Below Water) and SDG 15 (Life on Land), given its focus on coastal wetland restoration, but is also relevant to SDG 13 (Climate Action), through blue-carbon sequestration, and SDG 1 (No Poverty), given the fishing- and mangrove-dependent livelihoods in this coastal community. Restoring mangrove function more reliably and more quickly has direct implications for coastal protection, fisheries productivity, and blue-carbon financing mechanisms in small island developing states.