Quantum Machine Learning for Water Pollution Profiling in the Rio Santiago Basin

The Rio Santiago basin is one of the most environmentally stressed river systems in Mexico, with persistent organic, nutrient, microbial, surfactant, and metal contamination. This study develops a near-term quantum machine learning workflow for environmental monitoring and water-pollution profiling using multivariate records from 13 stations between 2009 and 2022. QML is evaluated here because quantum feature maps can define nonlinear, interaction-rich kernels that remain executable on present quantum hardware, providing an alternative representation to compare with classical PCA, RBF, UMAP, and HDBSCAN baselines rather than a presumed computational advantage. After quality screening, log transformation, standardization, and domain-guided feature selection, pollution profiles are evaluated across PCA, RBF spectral clustering, UMAP/KMeans, UMAP/HDBSCAN, a simulated ZZ-style quantum feature-map kernel, and Qiskit Runtime hardware evaluations of the same kernel concept. The initial cleaned-data results show that classical PCA clustering identifies broad lower-load, high organic/surfactant, and rain-season solids/microbial profiles. UMAP/HDBSCAN provides the strongest cleaned full-sample nonlinear baseline, with a silhouette score of 0.568 after excluding 177 noise samples. The simulated quantum-kernel representation separates station-linked gradients, while matched n = 650 stability diagnostics show near-identical quantum-kernel clustering across random initializations (mean ARI = 0.994 for cleaned data) but retain the RBF kernel as the strongest nonlinear comparator. Two 24-sample Qiskit hardware runs and two matched 8-record hardware checks provide proof-of-execution evidence. The analysis is framed as a controlled representation study, not as a claim of quantum advantage.