Quantifying the Gap Between the Local Perceptions of Farming Households and What Experts Say About Climate Change in Haiti and the Dominican Republic

This study quantifies and assesses the gap between the perceptions of 550 farming households on the Caribbean island of Hispaniola and the opinions of 60 regional experts on climate change. This quantification draws on the traditional knowledge of farming households, which is based on environmental observations, including meteorological, biological, and astrological ones, as well as on the experts’ opinions, which are grounded in scientific observations. To measure this gap, we asked 24 identical questions to both the experts and the farming households, using the experts’ responses as a benchmark. The experts’ statements were used as a reference to reflect the reality of climate change, given that the majority of experts’ answers converge. We then quantified the average distance for each farming household relative to these references. Fisher’s exact test and Pearson chi-square (χ2) test were used to assess this distance. A binary regression model was then used to identify the main factors influencing the gap in farming households’ perceptions, as well as to examine whether this gap is associated with greater socioeconomic vulnerability. The results revealed that in Haiti, 70% of farming households had a different perception from experts’one. In the Dominican Republic, this proportion was 47.50%. Vulnerable (OR = 12.94, p < 0.001) and very vulnerable (OR = 4.18, p < 0.05) farming households were more likely to have a different perception of climate change compared to experts.