Quantifying the Association Between Aerosols and Rice Yields in Eight Major Cities of Bangladesh Using Meteorological and Geospatial Data

ABSTRACT

Atmospheric aerosols impact agricultural productivity via complex radiative and meteorological pathways, but their specific effects on irrigated rice systems in Bangladesh are poorly quantified. This study examines how aerosol optical depth (AOD) affects Boro rice yields across Bangladesh's eight districts from 2007 to 2023, using MODIS AOD, satellite FAPAR, FAO ET ₀ , and meteorological data within a regression and indirect‐pathway framework. Results show a spatially varied yield response: Khulna, Barisal, Rangpur, Mymensingh, and Sylhet had net positive effects (up to +7.05 in Khulna), while Chattogram, Dhaka, and Rajshahi had net negative effects (down to −0.36), indicating region‐specific aerosol impacts. Across districts, aerosols showed stronger associations with minimum temperatures ( R ² up to 0.625 in Chattogram) than with maximum temperatures, implicating nocturnal thermal modification as a key mediating pathway alongside FAPAR. Seasonal analysis shows the AOD‐ET ₀ relationship flips between seasons: negative correlations during the dry Boro season in six districts ( r  = −0.21 to −0.69), whereas Chattogram and Sylhet remain positive year‐round, influenced more by local winds and humidity than by aerosol effects. Mann‐Kendall trend analysis showed increases in ET ₀ and decreasing precipitation in Chattogram and Barisal during the growing period. The aridity index‐yield regression identified Chattogram as most water‐stress‐vulnerable ( R ²  = 0.826, β  = −0.523) during the growing period, while Khulna and Mymensingh exhibited contrasting positive aridity–yield relationships. These findings challenge the idea that aerosols uniformly reduce agricultural productivity and show that region‐specific aerosol‐climate‐crop interactions need consideration in South Asia's food security and air quality strategies.