Qualitative System Dynamics Approach to Groundwater Management and Economic Policies: A Leverage Points Analysis

Excessive groundwater abstraction and water scarcity threaten regional ecosystems and socio-economic stability, particularly in semi-arid agricultural basins like Güzelyurt in northern Cyprus. This study presents a comprehensive methodological framework integrating qualitative system dynamics modeling (QSDM), Meadows’ leverage points (LPs), and the iceberg model to analyze groundwater dynamics in both agricultural and urban sectors. Through structured Group Model Building (GMB) workshops with regional stakeholders and experts, key feedback loops, structural drivers, and nine distinct leverage points were identified and evaluated. The findings indicate that shallow interventions—such as transboundary water transfers from Türkiye, supplemental releases from southern Cyprus, and the deployment of modern irrigation technologies—provide immediate relief for supply deficits but yield limited long-term systemic impact. Conversely, deeper structural and paradigm-shifting interventions, particularly regional population control, stringent withdrawal regulations, and targeted educational initiatives fostering a culture of sustainability, offer the greatest transformational potential for aquifer recovery. By synthesizing environmental, social, and economic dimensions, this research offers actionable strategic guidance for policymakers to achieve long-term hydro-environmental resilience and sustainable water resource management in vulnerable Mediterranean basins.