Qatar and Iran: Market Access Under Geopolitical Conflict

Abstract

The Iran War and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have exposed the fragility of globally interconnected gas systems. States’ natural‐gas export performance is often explained by resource endowments and national strategies, but this overlooks the conditions affecting how energy reaches markets. This study argues that energy strategies are filtered through market‐access conditions shaped by regional security dynamics. Using a qualitative comparative analysis of Qatar and Iran, the study shows how differences in export architecture—flexible systems for liquefied natural gas (LNG) versus constrained pipeline dependence—affect sanctions exposure, transit risks, and geopolitical disruption. The analysis demonstrates that resource abundance does not guarantee export success. Qatar's globally integrated LNG model enables diversification and resilience, while Iran's constrained market access, reinforced by sanctions and pressures of domestic demand, limits its ability to convert reserves into stable export flows. More broadly, the article offers a policy‐relevant framework for understanding energy security in geopolitically contested regions.