Prostitution Enforcement: Evaluating the Impact of Texas H.B. 1540 Using Interrupted Time Series Analysis

Texas H.B. 1540 made a first offense for purchasing sex a state jail felony. We examine Houston Police Department prostitution enforcement using monthly interrupted time-series models of 7,701 arrests from September 2015 through June 2023. The models treat COVID-19 and H.B. 1540 as separate interruptions, assess total, felony, and misdemeanor arrests, adjust for police arrest activity, and compare severity outcomes with simple assault as a nonequivalent control. A secondary analysis links arrests to incident reports and examines buyer- and seller-classified arrests in 6,997 incidents containing one qualifying prostitution arrest. H.B. 1540 was followed by an immediate felony increase and misdemeanor decline. No significant post-law level or slope changes emerged for buyer- or seller-classified arrests, and the buyer–seller contrast was nonsignificant. The evidence therefore supports a change in recorded charge severity more strongly than increased buyer-focused enforcement. Actor classifications are incident-inferred, and the follow-up cannot establish verified roles or longer-term effects.