Projecting Egypt’s Fisheries and Aquaculture Yields: A Multi-Scenario Analysis of Seafood Security and Self-Sufficiency

Egypt’s fishery sector, encompassing diverse capture fisheries and Africa’s largest aquaculture industry, provides over 21% of national animal protein but faces threats from population growth and environmental degradation. This study contributes a multi-scenario analytical framework to evaluate seafood security up to 2035, specifically quantifying the trade-offs between domestic self-sufficiency and nutritional standards. Results reveal that if domestic production stagnates at 2022 levels, Egypt should either quadruple imports to maintain current consumption or accept decline to ~16.5 kg/capita. The analysis identifies critical ‘tipping points’ for nutritional status and food sovereignty, establishing the functional boundaries of the sector’s resilience. Conversely, the baseline growth model suggests a potential output of 3982.52 KT, exceeding the ~3200 KT required for total self-sufficiency and a 23 kg/capita premium target. These findings provide a strategic roadmap for the sector, demonstrating that technological modernization through systems like Aquaculture Systems (RAS) and Integrated Multi-Trophic Aquaculture (IMTA), coupled with regulatory reform, can support resilient food security. Within this framework, achieving total self-sufficiency is presented as a strategic goal dependent upon successful policy and technical execution.