Projected Future Habitat Suitability of Five Endangered Terrestrial Mammals in South Korea Under CMIP6 Climate Scenarios

Global climate change threatens regional biodiversity, yet multi-model assessments tracking future range shifts of endangered mammals remain limited. This study evaluated future habitat suitability for five legally protected terrestrial mammals in the Republic of Korea (Lutra lutra, Martes flavigula, Prionailurus bengalensis, Naemorhedus caudatus, and Pteromys volans). Using the MaxEnt framework, we projected distributions across four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and future horizons (2021–2100) using five CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs). Projections revealed distinct, species-specific dynamics across consensus models. Four taxa (L. lutra, P. bengalensis, N. caudatus, and P. volans) exhibited progressive range contractions, with suitable habitats declining by −95% to −100% under high carbon emission scenarios. Conversely, M. flavigula demonstrated expanding trajectories, reflecting high-latitude range-edge responses. Prominent inter-model variations in the INM-CM5-0 and BCC-CSM2-MR models highlighted predictive uncertainties. We conclude that real-world habitat occupancy will be heavily constrained by non-climatic anthropogenic barriers, including fence networks, road systems, and climate-driven extensive wildfires. Consequently, proactive conservation should prioritize reinforcing verified contemporary core habitats along the Baekdudaegan Mountain Range and establishing structural corridors rather than relying solely on volatile bioclimatic projections.