Projected Changes in Rainfall and Temperature Under SSP Climate Scenarios in Pattambi, Kerala

Pattambi, a major rice-growing region in Kerala, is highly vulnerable to climate variability. This study analyzed future rainfall and temperature patterns for 2025–2095 using CMIP6 simulations under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. Four Global Climate Models (MPI-ESM1-2-HR, ACCESS-ESM1-5, MPI-ESM1-2-LR, INM-CM5-0) were evaluated, with INM-CM5-0 showing superior performance (RMSE: 1.5-4.8; R2: 0.50–0.85). Bias correction with CMhyd improved model reliability. Projections indicated a progressive increase in both temperature and rainfall. Under SSP2-4.5, maximum and minimum temperatures are projected to rise by 0.6 to 0.9°C and 0.6 to 1.2°C, respectively, with rainfall increasing by 961.2 mm to 2142.3 mm in the future. Under SSP5-8.5, increases are more pronounced, with Tmax and Tmin rising by up to 2.0°C and 2.5°C and rainfall by 6999 mm. These results highlight escalating risks of climatic extremes, emphasizing the need for adaptive strategies to sustain rice cultivation, safeguard water resources and strengthen regional resilience.