Projected Changes in Maize Cultivation Suitability Under Climate Change in the TR21 Thrace Region (Türkiye)

Climate change is expected to alter the climatic suitability of crops. This study evaluated the climatic suitability of maize cultivation in the TR21 Thrace Region of Türkiye using the EcoCrop model. Climatic suitability was assessed for a reference period (1950–2000) and projected for the 2050s using three CMIP5 global climate models (MPI_ESM_LR, HADGEM2_ES, and CNRM_CM5) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The EcoCrop model implemented in DIVA-GIS was used to evaluate climatic suitability. All climate models projected increases in average annual temperature of 1.7–3.8 °C, whereas projected changes in average annual precipitation ranged from −92 to +46 mm. Despite variations in temperature and rainfall forecasts, the projections indicate that the area suitable for maize cultivation will increase; the HADGEM2_ES model produced the highest proportion of suitable areas. The suitability rate across all projections ranged from 54.7% to 96.8%. Projected climate change is likely to improve maize climatic suitability in TR21 by the 2050s. Because EcoCrop evaluates climatic suitability based solely on temperature and precipitation thresholds, the projected changes should be interpreted as a climatic envelope for maize rather than as a direct increase in future yield or productivity. These findings inform agricultural adaptation strategies and regional land-use planning under climate change.