Productive Access, Foreign-Demand Exposure, and Value-Capture Resilience in Global Value Chains: An Exploratory Decomposition with Theory-Guided Breadth Tests

International integration can preserve productive options while synchronizing exposure to demand shocks. We distinguish productive access from foreign final-demand exposure as the primary conceptual contribution while treating the empirical decomposition as exploratory; structural breadth and the resistance–recovery distinction organize the theory-guided antecedent tests. Using OECD TiVA data for 80 economies across the global financial crisis and COVID-19, we measure value-added intensity (VAI) as value added divided by gross production. Domestic breadth is positively associated with VAI resistance (β = 0.0111, p = 0.021), but the result is between economies, becomes imprecise with sector controls, and does not survive Benjamini–Hochberg adjustment across H1–H5 (q = 0.074). Backward GVC participation is multiplicity-robust in its designated test (β = 0.0075, p = 0.005, q = 0.035). In the exploratory joint model, access is positive and exposure negative; with all added controls, access remains positive (β = 0.0117, p = 0.018), whereas exposure attenuates (β = −0.0080, p = 0.217). Neither channel predicts recovery. CPPI, LPI, UNIDO, and ITIC yield mixed, domain-specific validation. The findings concern macrostructural value capture in two crises, not production, employment, welfare, or operational continuity, and do not identify causal policy effects.