DOI: 10.35229/jaes.1976247 ISSN: 2548-0006

Production Trends and Volatility Analysis in Non-Fish Marine Capture Fisheries in Türkiye (2016–2025)

İlkan Ali Olgunoğlu, Mine Perçin Olgunoğlu, İsmail Ukav, Mustafa Göçer
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The aim of this study was to statistically examine the production trends and annual fluctuations of major non-fish marine capture groups in Türkiye during 2016–2025. The research was designed as a descriptive trend analysis based on secondary data published by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat). Annual growth rates, Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), standard deviation, coefficient of variation, and simple linear regression models were used to evaluate production dynamics. The findings indicated an average annual contraction of 1.85% in the total catch of non-fish marine products during the study period. However, the linear trend model for total production was not statistically significant at the 5% level (p=0.062; R²=0.370). A more pronounced decline was observed in sea snail production (CAGR: -5.00%), and the corresponding model was statistically significant (p=0.032; R²=0.458). In contrast, the high-value species group composed of octopus, squid, and shrimp subtypes exhibited low volatility (CV: 7.09%) and a non-significant linear trend (p=0.737), indicating a relatively more stable production pattern. In conclusion, non-fish marine capture fisheries in Türkiye show an overall downward tendency at the aggregate level; however, clear differences exist among species groups in terms of contraction, growth, and production volatility. These findings suggest that the sector should be monitored not only through total production levels but also through species-specific assessments.

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