Production Concentration of Key Minerals in Belt and Road Countries: Measurement and Analysis

Countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) hold substantial mineral resources that support industrial supply chains and the energy transition. However, the geographic distribution and production concentration of these resources remain insufficiently quantified. This study examines ten minerals across a fixed BRI country scope: iron ore, copper, gold, nickel, cobalt, lithium, bauxite, potash, tin, and phosphate rock. Countries entered each mineral-specific sample only when they met the adopted BRI and metallogenic belt criteria and reported positive 2023 mine production. We calculated the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) and concentration ratios (CR4 and CR8) from 2023 country-level data in the USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025. The 2024 estimates were retained only for descriptive comparison. Nickel (HHI = 0.567; CR4 = 1.000), cobalt (HHI = 0.666; CR4 = 0.957), and lithium (HHI = 0.522; CR4 = 1.000) formed the strongest concentration profile. Iron ore, copper, gold, and potash showed lower relative concentration (HHI = 0.151–0.276; CR4 = 0.653–0.934). Bauxite, tin, and phosphate rock formed a residual monitoring group with intermediate to high concentration indicators. These interpretive groups organize the 2023 results and do not constitute universal supply risk categories. External evidence on policy, logistics, processing, and sustainability is used to interpret the profiles rather than being included in the concentration measures.