Process-Based Geochemical Constraints on Organic Matter Enrichment and Shale Oil Potential in the Upper Jiufotang Formation, Ludong Sag, NE China

Accurately identifying organic-rich shale intervals remains a major challenge in lacustrine shale oil exploration, particularly in continental rift basins characterized by rapid environmental change and pronounced vertical heterogeneity. This study investigates the upper Jiufotang Formation in the Ludong Sag, Kailu Basin, NE China, using total organic carbon (TOC), vitrinite reflectance, multi-stage programmed rock pyrolysis, and major and trace element geochemistry to constrain the processes governing organic matter enrichment and hydrocarbon occurrence. The studied shales contain abundant organic matter, with TOC values ranging from 1.91% to 7.55% and averaging 4.22%. Type II2 kerogen and vitrinite reflectance values of 0.60–0.94% indicate oil-prone organic matter at low-mature to mature stages within the oil generation window. Multi-stage pyrolysis shows that the hydrocarbon assemblage is dominated by bound oil and residual kerogen-derived fractions, whereas the low-temperature movable oil fraction is limited. TOC is more strongly associated with the high-temperature pyrolysis fractions than with the light free-oil fraction, indicating that organic matter abundance primarily controls residual hydrocarbon generation potential but does not directly determine present-day movable oil content. Multiple elemental proxies are collectively consistent with deposition in a hydrologically restricted, variably brackish–saline lacustrine system with water-mass differentiation. Redox-sensitive indicators, including V/(V + Ni) and Mo, suggest persistent weakly reducing to reducing bottom-water conditions. After correction for carbonate- and phosphate-associated Ca, CIA values fall within a narrow range of approximately 67–70, indicating moderate and relatively stable source area chemical weathering. Organic matter enrichment was governed by the coupled effects of organic matter supply, preservation under stratified oxygen-deficient waters, and sedimentary dilution. We therefore propose a two-stage process framework in which depositional productivity–preservation coupling first promoted organic matter accumulation, whereas subsequent thermal maturation, hydrocarbon expulsion, retention, and adsorption reshaped the present hydrocarbon occurrence state. The results demonstrate that high organic matter abundance and residual generation potential do not necessarily translate into high movable oil content and provide a well-scale geochemical basis for source rock evaluation and future multi-well assessment in continental rift lake systems.