Probabilistic Scenarios Reveal the Impacts of China’s Energy System Net-Zero Transition on the Water–Energy–Food Nexus

Abstract

China’s energy transition toward carbon neutrality tightens interactions across the water–energy–food (WEF) nexus, amplifying systemic uncertainties that are poorly captured in previous assessments. This study develops a probabilistic integrated framework that couples bottom-up models for China’s WEF systems with Monte Carlo simulations across technological, policy, and behavioral uncertainty dimensions. By exploring over 4000 uncertainty cases, the framework quantifies not only median trajectories but also the full spectrum of outcomes and the tail risks associated with multidimensional uncertainties. Results indicate large heterogeneity in the probability space: while the median pathway attains deep decarbonization with renewables supplying over 60% of primary energy by 2060, the likelihood of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 is highly sensitive to carbon capture and storage deployment, the pace of renewable expansion, and cross-WEF-system resource constraints. Early mitigation actions, such as accelerated coal phase-out and rapid scale-up of low-carbon fuels, substantially reduce reliance on negative emission technologies and compresses outcome uncertainty. Sustainability-oriented measures, including water use efficiency improvements and dietary changes, materially relax WEF constraints. These findings deliver actionable diagnostics for policymakers to design decarbonization strategies that reconcile China’s net-zero ambitions with long-term WEF sustainability. The methodological framework is transferable to other national contexts where nexus interactions and deep uncertainty govern transition feasibility.