Proactive Tundra Conservation Strategy for a Rapidly Changing Arctic

The Arctic tundra is warming faster than any other biome, and its biodiversity, ecosystem functions, and Indigenous land use are increasingly shaped by interacting climate- and human-driven stressors. Conservation planning must therefore move beyond static protected-area targets toward approaches that explicitly account for future change. Here, we synthesize the major stressors that will shape tundra futures (woody plant expansion, permafrost thaw and associated disturbance dynamics, accelerating industrial development and infrastructure), and explain why their differing rates and interactions create a moving target for protection. We then identify key data and scenario gaps that currently limit circumpolar prioritization, including insufficient understanding of biodiversity responses to core stressors, uneven monitoring capacity to detect change and locate refugia, and limited integration of biodiversity change with ecosystem functions and culturally important areas. Building on this, we outline the concept of a step-by-step, scenario-based decision-support workflow for dynamic systematic conservation planning. Finally, we describe co-design and governance pathways for implementation and iteration with Indigenous peoples and local communities, stakeholders, and policymakers to reduce conflicts, increase legitimacy, and enable adaptive updates as conditions change. Together, these steps provide an actionable foundation for proactive tundra conservation under rapid Arctic change.