DOI: 10.3390/su18168085 ISSN: 2071-1050

Price Shocks and Their Implications for Sustainable Logistics, Energy Security and Supply Chain Resilience in Europe

Peter Kačmáry, Kristína Kleinová, Norbert Lörinc

European energy markets have experienced significant instability as a result of consecutive global systemic shocks, particularly the COVID-19 pandemic and the geopolitical conflict in Ukraine. This paper analyses the development of crude oil and natural gas prices between 2019 and 2024 and discusses their implications for sustainable logistics, energy security and supply chain resilience in Europe. The study is based on secondary data from internationally recognized sources, including the International Energy Agency, OPEC, Eurostat, the European Council, the World Bank and the U.S. Energy Information Administration. An event-based comparative approach supported by descriptive price-change calculations was applied to distinguish between the pandemic-related demand shock and the geopolitical supply-side shock after 2022. The results show that crude oil prices declined from approximately 64 USD/barrel in 2019 to 41 USD/barrel in 2020, representing a decrease of about 3f5.9%, mainly in connection with reduced mobility, lower transport activity and industrial slowdown during the COVID-19 pandemic. In contrast, crude oil prices increased to approximately 100 USD/barrel in 2022, representing an increase of about 143.9% compared to 2020, coinciding with geopolitical uncertainty and supply-side pressures. The European natural gas market appeared particularly vulnerable to the 2022 crisis because of supplier dependence, pipeline infrastructure constraints and reduced Russian gas flows. EU natural gas demand declined by 55 billion m3, or 13%, in 2022, indicating the effect of high prices, energy savings and crisis adaptation. The findings suggest that crude oil shocks are mainly related to transport costs and freight rates, while natural gas shocks may influence energy-intensive production, warehousing, cold chains and broader supply chain stability. The study highlights the need for energy diversification, renewable and low-carbon energy development, energy efficiency and more resilient logistics strategies.

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