Preventing Invasive Non‐Native Species: A Horizon Scanning for the Canary Islands
Ana Clara Sampaio Franco, Carolina Mendes Muniz, Martina Carrete, Pilar Castro‐Díez, Miguel Delibes‐Mateos, Josep A. Jaques, Mar Leza, Marta López‐Darias, Manuel Nogales, Macarena Ros, Xavier Turon, Montserrat Vilà, Óscar Afonso, Inés Álvarez, Andrés Arias, Dani Boix, Carlos Cabido, Eva Cacabelos, Carlos Cano‐Barbacil, Miguel Cañedo‐Argüelles, Beatriz Dáder, Ramón Gallo‐Barneto, Ignacio Gestoso, María González Díaz, David Hernández‐Teixidor, José Carlos Hernández, Cayetano Herrera, Marc Martín Solà, Elizabeth Ojeda‐Land, Francisco J. Oliva‐Paterna, Miguel Antonio Padrón‐Mederos, Jairo Patiño, Laura Piñeiro, Núria Roura‐Pascual, Marcos Salas‐Pascual, Elisa Viñuela, Emili García‐BerthouABSTRACT
Aim
Oceanic islands host exceptional biodiversity and endemism but are highly vulnerable to biological invasions. We aimed to identify non‐native species with high potential to invade the Canary Islands within the next decade and to prioritise them based on their environmental and socioeconomic risks.
Location
The Canary Islands, Macaronesia, northeastern Atlantic Ocean.
Methods
We applied a structured horizon scanning protocol with a global scope. A panel of 37 experts assessed 823 species across five thematic groups (marine species, freshwater animals, terrestrial vertebrates, terrestrial invertebrates and plants) by scoring their likelihood of arrival, establishment and impacts. Impacts were evaluated separately as environmental and socioeconomic. Agreement and consistency among experts were quantified, and two consensus‐based ranked lists were developed.
Results
Although agreement in expert scores was relatively low, species rankings showed high consistency. A total of 94 species were identified as priorities for prevention based on environmental impacts (12 very high risk, 82 high risk), while 49 species were prioritized for socioeconomic impacts (2 very high, 47 high). Environmental risks were dominated by lizards, snakes and freshwater fish, whereas socioeconomic risks were mainly concentrated on insects. Environmental and socioeconomic impact scores were only weakly related, underscoring the value of independent evaluation.
Main Conclusions
This study provides a horizon scanning explicitly focused on the Canary Islands, with separate assessments of environmental and socioeconomic risks. Our results highlight taxonomic groups that warrant urgent attention, show that invasion risk patterns vary depending on the spatial and contextual scale of assessment and provide a proactive tool to support surveillance, early warning systems and biosecurity measures. By anticipating future threats, this work contributes methodological and applied advances with broad relevance for conservation biogeography and invasive species management in island ecosystems.